Music for Reading · 5 Pieces

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Data Lab · Real historical data

Data Lab

Several of the book's main claims can be checked here against real historical data. Drag, switch and see what the numbers say.

Every simulation looks back at history. It does not predict the future and is not investment advice.

From the book · Chapter V

DCA time machine

Pick a year and a market, and see what would have happened if you had started investing every month back then. All real historical data — no assumed returns.

ValueInvestedValue with top-upsWorst market fall
See the Numbers by Year (Table)

From the book · Chapter V

The longer you hold, the better your odds

Buy once in any month and sell N years later: how often did that make money in history?

Data: US = Robert Shiller's S&P 500 total return (with dividends); Taiwan = Central Bank of the ROC (Taiwan) TAIEX monthly average; Japan = OECD share price index. One lump-sum purchase, no additions, before taxes and fees.

From the book · Chapter V

Sell when pricey vs. hold

The book says selling when prices look 'too expensive' leaves you with less in the long run. Set your own thresholds — invest the same amount every month and compare where each approach ends up.

Just holdFollow the rule

Same data and method as the backtest in Chapter V: US = Shiller real total return (with dividends), with cash earning the 3-month Treasury rate; Japan = OECD share price index and Taiwan = central bank TAIEX, both price indices, with cash earning nothing.

From the book · Chapter IV

Three famous bubbles

Line up each bubble's peak on the same day and see what came next: how far it fell, for how long, and how long it took to get back.

Data: US = Shiller S&P 500 monthly average price; Japan = OECD share price index; Taiwan = central bank TAIEX monthly average. All are price indices without dividends — with dividends, the road back would be much shorter.

From the book · Chapter V

Fees compound too

Fees compound too. Adjust the monthly amount, the years and the fee rates to see how big the gap gets.

Low costHigh costTotal invested

Author's estimate, compounding monthly at a fixed rate; real markets rise and fall from year to year.

From the book · Chapter VI

Thermometer Replay: A Century of Hot and Cold

What did the price ÷ 10-year average thermometer read in every month of history? Hover to see the reading and the return over the next five years.

Historically, the years after very hot readings brought clearly lower median returns — yet markets often stayed hot for years. After very cold readings, median returns were higher, though results varied widely and the extreme cases are few. That is why the book says the thermometer is for managing your own emotions, not a buy or sell signal.

Data: US = Shiller S&P 500 monthly average price (from 1871); Taiwan = central bank TAIEX monthly average; Japan = OECD share price index. Five-year returns use price changes only, without dividends.